With the regular season nearing its final three weeks, the race for the last playoff spots has begun. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs, the four division winners and three wildcard teams. Winning the division means not only making the playoffs, but having a home game to start the playoffs, and the team with the best record in their conference gets home field advantage throughout the playoffs and earns a first round bye.
At this point, a lot of teams already know where they’re going to be in the standings come playoff time, but there are still several teams fighting for their division, higher seeding, or a wildcard spot. If the playoffs started today the opening round in the AFC would be the Bills in Buffalo against the Chargers, the Broncos going into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, the Texans and Ravens facing off in a playoff rematch from last year in Houston, and the Chiefs would have the free pass to the next round. In the NFC the Commanders would travel to Philly for their third meeting of the year with the Eagles, the Buccaneers would host the Packers, the Vikings would be going into Los Angeles for a regular season rematch with the Rams, and the Lions would be receiving the coveted first round bye. With the outcomes of each team’s final three games still up in the air, the teams that would be in the playoffs if they started now and the teams that will be after the last three weeks could be drastically different.
In the AFC, four teams have already punched their ticket to the playoffs; the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans have clinched their divisions, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have clinched a playoff berth but are still battling for the division title with the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers and Ravens will clash in week 16 in a game that could ultimately decide who wins the AFC North, with the Ravens currently sitting one game behind the Steelers. The Steelers hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens because they beat them earlier in the season, but even if the Ravens beat Pittsburgh this week, they would still lose the tiebreaker because Pittsburgh has the better conference record. If those two teams end the season with the same record the Steelers will in all likelihood win the division.
As for the rest of the AFC, the teams that will be in the playoffs are all mainly settled, but the positioning is still tight. The Chiefs and the Bills are duking it out for the number one seed in the conference and the Chiefs have the edge but that could change. Kansas City has a two game lead on Buffalo, but with the Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, looking like he could miss some time with an ankle injury and the Bills holding the head to head tiebreaker, anything can happen. The Bills are playing the Jets sandwiched between two games against the Patriots to close out the season, which are all games they should win. The Chiefs have to go against three playoff teams. Kansas City could still beat all three teams but if Mahomes is out for these games they will be Kansas City’s toughest test yet, opening the door for Buffalo.
The three wildcard teams entering this week are the Ravens with the fifth seed, the Denver Broncos with the sixth seed, and the Los Angeles Chargers with the seventh seed. None of those three teams are in very much danger of falling out of the playoffs completely but only the Ravens are in the mix for a division championship. The Chargers and Broncos are separated by one game with the Broncos at 9-5 and the Chargers at 8-6. The Broncos and Chargers play each other for the second time on Thursday night in a game that could decide who gets the sixth seed and who gets the seventh.
The NFC is much closer and more interesting in every aspect. Only three teams have officially clinched a playoff spot and nobody has secured their division yet. There are three teams in the running for the one seed: the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. All three have a record of 12-2 but not all lead their division. The Lions and the Vikings are tied at the top of the NFC North but the Lions have the tiebreaker having beaten Minnesota once, but they play each other one more time. The Lions are decimated by injuries on their defense so that will make it even harder for them to hang on to the division let alone get the one seed. The team that gets the one seed will probably be the team that wins all three of their remaining games and if multiple teams do that the Lions and Vikings both hold tiebreakers over the Eagles. Therefore, the matchup between the Lions and Vikings in week 18 might not only be for the division but for the best seed in the conference.
Possibly one of the most interesting storylines in the NFC playoffs is the Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks. The Rams have the lead on the Seahawks in the NFC West by virtue of a tiebreaker and the Seahawks are the eighth seed, one short of being the last wildcard team. Los Angeles and Seattle will play each other in week 18 which could decide who takes the division with the loser missing the playoffs all together. However, based on their respective schedules the Rams have an easier path to locking up the division before that final game. The Rams play the Jets and Cardinals – two teams who probably won’t make the playoffs – and the Seahawks play a more formidable opponent in the Vikings followed by the Bears. In the event that the Rams go undefeated in those two games and Seattle wins one and loses one, the Rams would clinch the division before their final contest because Los Angeles owns both tiebreakers.
Without winning the division the only other avenue to the playoffs for the Seahawks is to sneak into the last wildcard position, which seems unlikely. Seattle would need to win two out of their final three and they would need the Washington Commanders to lose out, and the Atlanta Falcons to lose one of their last three games. Washington is 9-5 and is in control of the seventh seed and most likely only needs to win one more game to make the playoffs. If Washington only wins one more game the only way they could miss the playoffs is if the Falcons win out. Washington in their last three will play the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys, meaning the game against Atlanta could play a huge role in determining who makes and who misses the playoffs.
The Falcons are 7-7 and are a game behind the Buccaneers in their division and two games behind in the wildcard but are losing pace. After a great 6-3 start to the season Atlanta has fallen off a cliff losing four out of their last five games. The most plausible way into the playoffs for Atlanta is winning their division but that is improbable. For that to happen Atlanta would probably need to win the rest of their games which is possible considering they play two teams that are dead in the water but they will need to go into Washington and win which won’t by any means be an easy task. Their division counterparts, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 8-6 and sit atop the division with three very winnable games left to go. They have the Cowboys, the Panthers, and the Saints all three of which are nowhere near the playoffs. With a relatively easy schedule and the Falcons sputtering they have the NFC South all but sealed. The final team with any shot at the playoffs is the Arizona Cardinals, but it is a longshot. The Cardinals are 7-7 and would need to win the rest of their games to even have a chance. If they do win out there are two scenarios where they would get in. To win the division they would need the Seahawks to lose at least two of their last three and the Rams to lose at least one, and to make the wildcard they would need Washington to lose out and the Falcons to lose at least one, so it is a near impossible road to the playoffs for Arizona.
Based on what has taken place throughout the NFL season and what is still to come, most of the teams that are currently holding onto a playoff spot will make the playoffs but a lot of reshuffling is to be expected.