While many fall sports series begin play, the NASCAR cup series season is already well underway and with the NASCAR Playoffs Entering the Round of 16, it’s looking to be quite an exciting end to the season. With already many big drivers unable to qualify for the playoffs such as Richard Childress Racing’s 8 car of Kyle Busch and Joe Gibbs Racing’s 54 car of Ty Gibbs, the pressure of the playoffs will only amplify the tension and racing.
The NASCAR Cup series playoffs work in a bracket system. 16 drivers race for the first 3 rounds, and then 4 get eliminated. They do that until there’s only four left, and the championship will be decided in one race at Phoenix Raceway on Halloweekend.
With the round of 16 already over, some drivers already look like they have a shoe in for the championship, but some drivers on the outside looking in could be a potential spot stealer.
LIST OF TRACKS- ROUND OF 16
Darlington – Southern 500- Briscoe Won, One of NASCAR’S Crown jewels
World Wide Technology Raceway- Hamlin won, Enjoy illinois 300
Bristol Night Race- Bell won, Bass Pro shops night race
LST OF TRACKS- ROUND OF 12
New Hampshire
The Magical Mile at Loudon
Kansas Speedway
Hollywood casino 400 at NASCAR top 1.5 mile track
Charlotte Roval
Last RC race of the year
KEY for LIST below:
* = Crown Jewel (BIGGEST RACES)
^ = Major Race
‘ = Road Course/ Street
E = Eliminated
- Hendrick Motorsports- 48 Alex Bowman -E
It took until the checkered flag at Daytona to qualify for the playoffs, and he owes Ryan Blaney big time for coming away with the win. Overall his year has been solid. With 14 top 10s and 6 top 5s he’s looking to make a run through the playoffs. Post Bristol, He had a valiant effort but unfortunately it wasn’t enough as without new tires he was a sitting duck to those behind on new tires at the overtime restart.
- Richard Childress Racings Austin Dillon -E
Wins – Richmond
With Austin Dillon winning his second straight Richmond race legitimately this time, he has punched his ticket to the playoffs and he does not belong here. Before winning at Richmond he had only 5 top tens and one top 5 and was sitting 28th in points and has been very mid with an average finish of 20th. Out of every driver BetMGM has Austin Dillon with the lowest odds to advance out of the round of 16.
Post Bristol The sportsbook was right as Dillon could not react fast enough to the tire wear at Bristol and it slowed his pace and he ultimately could not get a good finish but instead it was a long night at the last great coliseum which ultimately saw him eliminated.
- 23XI Racings Tyler Reddick +37 -> -3
Coming off a championship 4 appearance, being the regular season champ a year ago and pulling off one of the greatest last lap passes of all time last year at homestead Miami speedway, Tyler Reddick has still been a threat each week. While he hasn’t won a race this season, it’s quite likely he will win one before the season is over. Recording 9 top 10s and 5 top 5s with an average finish of 15th, he’s getting hot at the right time and while he has DNFs at Richmond and Daytona, he was dominantly leading those races before getting involved in a wreck as a bystander.
- Wood Brothers Josh Berry -E
Wins – Las Vegas
Hendersonville’s Josh Berry, which by the way has a population of 30,000, adds to the list of celebrities its houses, with the other one being a certain Taylor Swift. But enough of that, racing for a team whose most notable accomplishment last year was just making the playoffs, Josh Berry has done an outstanding job at the Wood Brothers. While only having 5 top 10s and 2 top 5s his tremendous start to the year and win at Las Vegas does give him a shot to make a run at the playoffs. Post Bristol, just bad luck for the 21 at Bristol, as old rubber got stuck in the brakes and caused a fire which DNF’d his car and knocked him out of the playoffs.
- Penske Racings 22 Joey Logano +21->-2
Wins – Texas
The reigning 3 time champ came into the Southern 500 with a similar feeling to his 2023 campaign which ended in a wreck at Bristol eliminating him from the championship. Logano is looking to end the narrative that odd years are bad for him and that Penske’s championship success is a fluke. The patriot from midtown Connecticut has had an average finish of about 17th and for him to win two in a row, he’s gonna have to turn it on at the right time. He’s advanced thanks to a good average finish and not having a bad night at Bristol.
- Trackhouse racings, Ross Chastain +19->-2
Wins- Charlotte, Coke 600*
The melon man makes his grand return to the playoffs after being eliminated early in 2023, and making ESPNs top 5 with his hail melon at Martinsville in 2022, and is looking to make it back to the championship 4 after his victory at the Coca Cola 600. The Floridians season has been solid, recording 10 top 10s, 3 top 5s, and an average finish of 16th putting him in the mid pack for the playoffs. If Ross wants to advance into the round of eight he will have to put on some stellar performance, the Roval in particular to be a big round.
- Penske racings, Austin Cindric +11->-1
Wins- Talladega^
Win and in is the saying in NASCAR, and nobody represents this more than Austin Cindric. Last year he made it into the playoffs because his teammate ran out of fuel and this year it’s because he won at Talladega, which anyone can win at. Recording only 5 top tens and 2 top 5s, his stats aren’t bad but with an average finish of 20th that makes him on par with Austin Dillon, a driver who previously could only win by dumping and right hooking 2 drivers. He’s advanced but is probably the weakest driver in the field. He won’t last much longer.
- 23XI Racings Bubba Wallace +50->+1
Wins- Indianapolis, Brickyard 400*
There’s a lot of pressure against Bubba Wallace but he’s been up to the task. He is the only African American in the NASCAR cup series and one of the only African Americans in the entire chain of NASCAR, other than the truck series driver Rajah Caruth, a DC native. Despite racing for Michael Jordan, the 7 time NBA champ and Denny Hamlin, he put all that pressure to bed by snapping his 100 race winless streak with a big victory at the Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis. With 10 top tens, 4 top 5s, and being one of the hottest drivers as of late, Bubba Wallace is ready to make a run at the championship.
- Joe Gibbs Racings Chase Briscoe ADV->+10
Wins – Pocono, Darlington*
Normally when switching to another team, it takes a while for them to find victory lane. Well, it took Briscoe almost no time at all to win, as he won at Pocono ahead of teammate Denny Hamlin who is the winningest driver at Pocono. He’s had a stellar first year at Joe Gibbs racing and has the finishes to back it up. With 12 top 10s, 10 top 5s, and 6 poles, most among current drivers, Briscoe is looking to cement himself at one of the top teams in Nascar. After dominating southern 500, leading over 300 laps, he’s locked in for the round of 12.
- Hendrick Motorsports Chase Elliot +28->+5
Wins – Atlanta
NASCARs most popular driver has had a season that can be summed up as one of consistency. With only one DNF this year and an average finish of 11th, he is a shoo in for the championship this year. The only thing stopping Elliot from being a top challenger is his lack of wins compared to his other teammates. Winning is a key element of the playoffs, as in order to make the championship 4, only one driver can point their way in, unless someone outside the playoffs wins, and not being in the top 4 seeding wise makes it a uphill climb.
- Trackhouse Racings Shane van Gisbergen -E
Wins – Mexico’, Chicago Street’, Sonoma’, Watkins glen’
Coming from New Zealand, Shane van Gisbergen’s NASCAR Career has started with a bang sweeping all current road courses. Despite having four wins all of them are on road courses not ovals. Ovals are a concern for Shane as he struggles on them a lot, particularly short tracks. His average finish on road courses is an all time best 2, while at Ovals it is an abysmal 26.5, and with 3 of the first 4 rounds coming at Ovals, he will have to fight his way through without the crutch of road courses. After Bristol, his weakness at Ovals was exposed. While he’s gotten better, he’s nowhere close to being a threat. He can still win at the Oval, though.
- Joe Gibbs Racings Christopher Bell ADV->+20
Wins- Atlanta, CoTA’, Phoenix, Bristol^
Coming into the year, many thought this would be his year and he proved that by winning 3 straight to start the year, and while he has cooled down a little bit, Christopher Bell knows when to turn it on as he’s made the championship 4 3 times in a row. With 14 top 10s and 9 top 5s, Bell has what it takes to win his first championship. After the first two rounds he’s pretty much a lock with solid finishes at Darlington and Gateway. Post Bristol, while he only led 12 laps, he led the one that counts the most, the last one. After surviving a dump and run from Brad Keselowski on the last corner, he won Bristol giving JGR a first round sweep.
- Penske Racing’s Ryan Blaney +19
Wins- Nashville, Daytona^
The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Champion is looking to win his second championship this season and he’s had another great year. With 12 top 10s, 9 top 5s, and an average finish of 12.5, Ryan Blaney is gonna be a force throughout the playoffs with Talladega and Martinsville in particular as ones to watch for Blaney. After being dumped at WWT, Blaney did an incredible job recovering to P5 and now has a reason to dump Larson out of the playoffs.
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin ADV-> +26Wins- Martinsville, Darlington^, Dover, Michigan, Gateway
Despite being the winningest driver without a championship, Denny Hamlin is looking to end that narrative this year, and having the most wins at the most different tracks certainly helps with that. Out of all the tracks in the playoffs, Denny is good at all of them, but he’s failed to advance out of the round of 8 each time since 2021. So the question will be, can he get over the hump? 1 solid recovery drive at Darlington and winning at WWT puts him right into the championship conversation and has advanced to the round of 12. Post Bristol reseeding, he is now the number one seed.
- Hendrick Motorsports William Byron +39->+24
Wins- Daytona 500*, Iowa
When William Byron replaced the legendary Jeff Gordon in the iconic 24 car, there were serious questions about could a driver from iracing perform in the big time. Well it took 7 years, but Byron is in the big time and is a serious title threat this year. The Back to Back Daytona 500 champ and regular season champion is going for the title. After the first two rounds, he’s been similar to Christopher Bell, having solid finishes to give him a nice gap to the cutoff line.
- Hendrick Motorsports Kyle Larson +60->+24
Wins- Homestead-Miami, Bristol, Kansas
The last driver, the former number one seed, is Kyle Larson. Often compared to Max Verstappen, some even claim he is better than him, he has not proved that this season. Since the weekend of the Indy 500, he has not won and has had numerous finishes outside of the top 28. That in itself is concerning. While he’s had good finishes in the last 3 races, he is unpredictable and is having a season similar to Martin Truex jr’s 2023 campaign. Dont let that point tally fool you, Kyle Larson is not a big threat to the championship. Dumping Blaney at WWT and being mid at Darlington tells me that he is getting desperate, and I dont think he’ll be able to turn it around.
PREDICTIONS: Championship 4
Denny Hamlin- Champion
William Byron
Christopher Bell
Bubba Wallace
I think each of these drivers has what it takes to win this year’s championship and I have Hamlin winning, breaking the narrative of the winningest driver without a championship. To back it up, he also holds the most wins this year, and he is also the most experienced driver. I believe this is the year Denny Hamlin can execute to perfection to claim the Bill Franz Trophy.
With the playoffs covered, you can go watch the next race on Sunday 9/21 at 2pm EST on USA; the drivers battle it out at the magical mile in New Hampshire. If you miss it, Kansas is one you can’t miss as it is the best intermediate on the calendar and has NASCARs closest finish of all time. It’s at 3pm EST on 9/28 on USA at Kansas Speedway.